The London-based think tank, Economist Intelliegence Unit (EIU), has for the fifth time in a row predicted President Peter Mutharika’s victory in the 2019 elections.
In its second quarter report for 2018 released today, the EIU’s Malawi analysis also includes the following highlights:
ON SAULOS CHILIMA
“Being an outsider, Mr Chilima will not be a serious challenger in the DPP nominations, and deep divisions impede the MCP’s own chances at the poll. As such, we still expect a Peter Mutharika victory, and our forecast is unchanged.”
ON JOYCE BANDA
“It is too early to know what role Mrs Banda will play ahead of the elections, or indeed if she will face legal action over cash-gate. Either way, though, we do not anticipate her being a serious electoral challenger should she stand for the presidency, and our forecast for Peter Mutharika of the DPP to win is unchanged.
ON DPP MPs ENDORSEMENT OF APM
“Despite the rifts within the DPP, Mr Mutharika continues to hold majority support and we
continue to expect him to stand in the 2019 election. We still expect him to win at this point, but internal differences make this forecast increasingly risky, which we will highlight in the next report.”
ON 2018/19 NATIONAL BUDGET
“With a three-year funded IMF programme in place, Malawi is no longer a pariah in the eyes of donors, the days of rapid inflation are over and the economy is poised to enter into a healthier growth phase.”