It surprises me many times how people analyse politics. You try to look deep into what they are saying to appreciate the basis of their argument, you can’t see any. Every political analysis, view or argument must be based on facts not emotions or opinions.
In the previous elections PP came third despite being government and having the exclusive advantage of incumbency. PP became the first government to lose elections to two Opposition parties. If PP suffered such an embarrassing loss while in government, we should not be wasting our time talking about this party now when they are outside government and almost disbanded, without a stronghold at all.
UDF came forth despite having a youthful leader in his 30s in this generation when people say they need youthful leaders to replace the old ones. And UDF does not really have the entire East as its stronghold.
Both UDF and PP are hopeless parties on the road to 2019.
Now, DPP won 2014 elections from the Opposition without an alliance. And if you ask me, i insist that DPP was weaker then than now. It is therefore a baseless analysis to say that DPP needs alliance with UDF and PP to win 2019. It is UDF and PP that needs DPP the most because when you are weak you need the strong to survive. DPP can go solo as always and still win but PP and UDF can’t. Their hope is in striking a deal with DPP which stands a bigger chance of winning than MCP.
In the post-2014 party politics, MCP and PP have become weaker than they were. MCP has become weaker because of internal fights and Lazarus has lost the appeal of being a new entrant which gave people confidence and expectation in 2014. And most people have known him for who he really is; a useless politician. However, MCP still retains its position among the giants. UDF has gained some strength just because it has overtaken PP. Should we hold elections today, DPP will come first, MCP second as usual, and UDF would replace PP on third position.
An alliance with UDF and PP benefits DPP in the post- 2019 government where it would need a majority in parliament to govern when they win the Presidency. DPP is less likely to get enough MPs in 2019. Thats the major weakeness DPP might have. Thats where the alliance deals would benefit them more.