The Malawi’s economic, political and governance analysis and projections of 2018 until 2022 as provided in the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) report, puts Malawi is not so bad a shape. It is concise and yet quantitatively comprehensive enough to substantially analyze all areas of critical importance to matters of our state. This adds to the credibility and believability to the given political projections.
What interests me the most is the political analysis and projections up to 2019, especially the re-election of President Mutharika and the DPP. I like the objectivity of the report, because it does not only report on the impending electoral victory but also warns of political volatility on general political landscape and within the DPP itself.
The expected political volatility within the DPP whereby President Mutharika is expected to face increased isolation and betrayal as some of the heavyweights in the party begin to challenge his authority and possibly his candidacy for 2019, means that Mutharika needs to seriously consider the trustworthiness of those that he chooses to surround him and advise him on the road to 2019. The president would need to not only get obsessed with strategy for 2019 elections for the Party, but also strategy for the consolidation of his power to neutralize the predicted isolation and resistance from some “Judas Iscariots.”
On the other hand, the report is clear, just like some of us have always said, that MCP is going to lose. The report has made it very clear that MCP cannot build on its recent victory in the by- elections as a projection of its strong political muscle or possible victory in 2019. The EIU report agrees with us that, “the seats were in marginal constituencies or ones where the ruling party had struggled to establish itself in the past.” The report further shows that the fights and divisions in MCP will contribute to another historic fall at the ballot.
Now, a good conclusion as I see it from this report is that, yes, DPP has a clear shot at 2019 and MCP needs to put its house in order for 2024. MCP has a lot of ground work to do, in terms of expanding its electorate base and finding better leadership. 2019 is too close for MCP to position itself for victory.
So, all the best to both parties.